RBL Bank
RBL Bank from its peak of June 2019 price 689 a fall 83% to April low of 120 rupees 2020 (1st leg fall).
Second leg fall from Feb 2021-- 267 to June 2022 --82 (fall of 70%).
From this low it started recovering with a higher high (HH) to a higher Low (HL).
from last recent Pivot 1st FEB 2025 -- 147 to high of 275 (my buy price zone) it was up roughly 89-90%.
I like to see long-term charts to decide to enter during Stage 2 only.
Weekly Chart.
While reading, kindly see the chart and numbers mentioned in the annotated charts below.
This is the (Zoom) weekly time frame chart from Dec.2023 till Oct 2025
1) number 1 on the chart with a yellow arrow, this is a weekly candle, which i call it a Gapdown reversal bar (where open is low of the week, it represents reversal or strong demand in stock). for this candle, you can see increasing volume.
2) & 3) numbers 2 and 3 represent the more green candles with rising volume typical of institutional buying and stage 2 uptrend.
4) red arrow with number 4 is the most ideal entry on 21st August and 1st September Weekly candles. It suggests a breakout with good volume on a weekly chart.
Daily Chart
Now let's Zoom on the Daily time frame, where we will see entry and the latest price action.
In the chart below, you will see daily time frame candles with RSI and TTM squeeze indicator. i use EMA 10 purple, 21 blue, 50 green.
1) Number 1 as depicted in the annotated chart, there is a red candle with long wick forming near 50 EMA, with the next day green candle showing open low same with good volume. (This depicts big player accumulation near an important MA).
2) & 3) numbers show a tight daily candle range with the lowest volume.
4) Number 4 represents Breakout on 8 October with an intraday price range of 6% total. (roughly 3 times more of ADR% with good above-average volume)
5) Number 5 in the chart shows TTM squeeze dots in orange colour, (Orange dots signal the most significant consolidation, where the Bollinger Bands are at their tightest within the Keltner Channels) which represents extreme price tightness.
My entry on 26 September was priced at 273.95 with 2.5 % stop loss (ADR on that day was 2.95%) so my stop loss was almost 1 ADR%.
Even though I dont consider much fundamental for my swing/positional trade, but i reviewed RBL Bank few data as Indian market perform badly over last 1 year and september month also.
you can see institutantional increase in holding, fall of retail and small holders %.
rising QoQ EPS and QoQ consolidated profit
As people don't believe until you post screenshot of your purchase.
Really nice analysis! I like how you explained the monthly, weekly, and daily charts and highlighted key reversal and breakout points. The way you included volume and EMA observations makes it very clear. Your notes on institutional accumulation and rising EPS add a good fundamental perspective. Thanks for sharing your thought process, it’s very helpful for learning.
ReplyDeleteThe only concern I have with RBL Bank currently is the high P/E compared to other banks of similar size. Net profit is down 46% YoY, Net Interest Income is ₹1,481 crore (down 13% YoY), and operating profit is ₹703 crore (down 18% YoY). RoE over the last 3 years is 6.46%. Asset quality is stable and deposits are growing, so the bank has potential to recover, but valuation is something to watch before entering.
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